| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Journal Article | |||
| Site | mtc-m21c.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3UMEC7B | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2020/01.03.16.18 (restricted access) | |||
| Last Update | 2020:01.03.16.18.50 (UTC) simone | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2020/01.03.16.18.50 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2022:01.04.01.34.55 (UTC) administrator | |||
| DOI | 10.1016/j.asr.2019.11.011 | |||
| ISSN | 0273-1177 1879-1948 | |||
| Citation Key | GonçalvesEcheFrig:2020:SuCyPr | |||
| Title | Sunspot cycle prediction using Warped Gaussian process regression  | |||
| Year | 2020 | |||
| Month | Jan. | |||
| Access Date | 2024, May 17 | |||
| Type of Work | journal article | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE PI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 1153 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Gonçalves, Ítalo G. 2 Echer, Ezequiel 3 Frigo, Everton | |||
| Resume Identifier | 1 2 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JH3D | |||
| Group | 1 2 DIDGE-CGCEA-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Universidade Federal do Pampa (UNIPAMPA) 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 3 Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 italogoncalves@unipampa.edu.br 2 ezequiel.echer@inpe.br | |||
| Journal | Advances in Space Research | |||
| Volume | 65 | |||
| Number | 1 | |||
| Pages | 677-683 | |||
| Secondary Mark | B1_INTERDISCIPLINAR B1_GEOCIÊNCIAS B1_ENGENHARIAS_IV B1_ENGENHARIAS_III B1_BIODIVERSIDADE B3_CIÊNCIA_DA_COMPUTAÇÃO B4_ASTRONOMIA_/_FÍSICA C_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I | |||
| History (UTC) | 2020-01-03 16:18:50 :: simone -> administrator :: 2020-01-03 16:18:51 :: administrator -> simone :: 2019 2020-01-03 16:19:41 :: simone :: 2019 -> 2020 2020-01-03 16:19:41 :: simone -> administrator :: 2020 2022-01-04 01:34:55 :: administrator -> simone :: 2020 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Keywords | Sunspot number Solar cycle Machine learning Gaussian process | |||
| Abstract | Solar cycle prediction is a key activity in space weather research. Several techniques have been employed in recent decades in order to try to forecast the next sunspot-cycle maxima and time. In this work, the Gaussian process, a machine-learning technique, is used to make a prediction for the solar cycle 25 based on the annual sunspot number 2.0 data from 1700 to 2018. A variation known as Warped Gaussian process is employed in order to deal with the non-negativity constraint and asymmetrical data distribution. Tests using holdout data yielded a root mean square error of 10.0 within 5 years and 25.035.0 within 10 years. Simulations using the predictive distribution were performed to account for the uncertainty in the prediction. Cycle 25 is expected to last from 2019 to 2029, with a peak sunspot number about 117 (110 by the median) occurring most likely in 2024. Thus our method predicts that solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than previous ones, implying a continuing trend of declining solar activity as observed in the past two cycles. | |||
| Area | CEA | |||
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDGE > Sunspot cycle prediction... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| Language | en | |||
| Target File | goncalves_sunspot.pdf | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Reader Group | administrator simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher denyfinaldraft24 | |||
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3EU29DP | |||
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/10.01.22.11 6 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21/2012/07.13.14.45.47 5 | |||
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; COMPENDEX; SCOPUS. | |||
| Host Collection | urlib.net/www/2017/11.22.19.04 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||